10-4 Magazine
KEN'S KORNER - FEBRUARY 2005

THE JOB BUBBLE
By Author, Educator and Big City Driver Ken Skaggs

Most of you have probably heard of the Internet Bubble and the Real Estate Bubble. But have you ever heard of the Job Bubble? Me neither, that’s why I wrote this article. Remember, you heard it here first. I believe there is a job bubble happening right now and it is in the (slow) process of building or bursting, depending on your specific industry. Although it won’t be an overnight event, I see it happening over a period of many years, beginning many years ago and ending many years from now.

For those who may not know, back in 1999 many Internet websites were thought to be worth much more money than they actually were. We saw stock prices plummet as people realized it and quickly sold their stock. Yahoo.com, for example, was once worth over $200 a share, but quickly dropped to $8 a share around the time the bubble burst. There were many reasons for the internet bubble (and the burst), one of which was the fact that busy websites were selling ad space to companies that realized that advertising on a web-page wasn’t nearly as profitable as they had hoped.

The real estate bubble is still a question mark in most areas. Some experts believe that although real estate prices keep rising, they are bound to come down at some point. Others don’t believe in the bubble at all and still see real estate as a sound investment. I personally know of only one area where property values have actually gone down. But I am surely no expert in real estate.

Jobs, however, I do know something about. After all, I have worked for over ninety different companies in my life, in about a dozen different career fields. I am always taking risks and trying new things. And when things don’t work out (which they usually don’t), I can always return to trucking where jobs are plentiful and the pay is pretty good. Even now, as I drive OTR and plan my next venture, my wife runs a small pawn shop, which I started. My company doesn’t know I will be leaving them soon, but I will be (probably by the time they read this). I have a great new idea that I am pretty sure will result in some residual income, but I digress.

Although trucking has remained a stable industry and always will, there are segments of it which have fallen by the wayside and others which have risen to the top. There are also companies who make their living catering to those in the trucking industry, and those demands have changed as well. It’s all about supply-and-demand. As long as people demand stuff, trucks will be needed to bring it. And as long as there are trucks, drivers will be needed to drive them (at least until they build truck-driving robots). Times do change, however, with technological advances and trends, which causes shifts in demand from one aspect of trucking to another.

We are witnessing a boom in the expediting business right now, for example. With more and more people shopping on the Internet, I only see this segment growing. FedEx and others like them are sure to prosper if they can remain competitive. I’ve been noticing a lot of new and old trucking companies catering to this need. Drivers are paid pretty well too, sometimes double what other drivers make. Even U.S. Xpress is getting into it with their new Xpress Global division. When people need something fast, they call these expediters. And when these drivers get dispatched, they have no time to lose when making their rounds.

There is a huge demand for drivers these days. We all know that. But many drivers feel as I do, that the pay should be better than it is. To be such a hot commodity, drivers should be able to demand a higher price. When there was a shortage of Beanie-Babies, people were paying a hundred times the price for them. Why not a hundred times the pay for drivers? Or at least two times the pay, if they are in such a huge demand? The answer is - because they are not. There are enough drivers to go around. There may not be enough good drivers or enough experienced drivers, but there are enough drivers, or at least enough of them willing to work for that deflated amount of money we're all getting.

I believe that there are more jobs than needed for truckers, not necessarily a shortage of drivers. Because most trucking companies are trying to grow, they are always hiring, but not because they can’t seem to find drivers. They can find them (getting them to stay is another story). It’s not that good jobs are fewer and farther between, it’s just that there are more and more people willing to do them.

With more immigrants and young people getting into it and first-timers of all ages looking for a start, there will always be a supply of drivers willing to work for less than the experienced ones. That is the real reason so many companies won’t raise their pay. They don’t mind the turnover. They just deal with it, hoping to get lucky. It’s like a losing baseball team who only hires from the minor leagues, as opposed to a championship team who isn’t afraid to lay out the bucks and hire a free-agent and proven performer.

Don’t let that get you down. It’s just the ladder of life. There are still a lot of good jobs out there for truckers, but the best ones are the hardest to find. That’s why only the experienced, resourceful and smart drivers will find them. You won’t find their ads plastered all over every truck stop and newspaper. You’ll find them through word-of-mouth and sometimes by sheer luck and timing, or maybe in an obscure magazine like this one. If you do get a good job, hold on to it, because if you don’t, ten drivers are waiting to take it.

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